Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-06-12 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Evan Carter

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 6 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs BOSSonny Gray
Sample591.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.8
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 16.0% Market 11.0% Gap +4.7pp
DraftKings 780 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 53.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 53.1% Market 65.1% Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 13.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.5% Market -- Gap +12.6pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
39
Exit velocity85.6
21
Hard-hit%37.5%
40
xBA0.276
13
xSLG0.470
36
xwOBA0.299
40 -17 vs proj
BB%13.6%
90 +32 vs proj
Bat speed68.3
33
K%23.8%
38
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · CF
40
Arm Strength91.1 · CF
33
Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF
98
Range Runs5.0 · CF
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.5 · CF
94
Bolts14.0 · CF
78
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
95
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
90
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions70.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.254
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.278 to 0.344
RegressionPositive · 0.001
Opposing pitcherSonny Gray
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)