Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-06-18 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-18

Evan Carter

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 24
Projected · 6 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupTEX vs MINJoe Ryan
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 23.1
F 19.6
V 19.6
Model 18.8% Market 11.0% Gap +7.4pp
DraftKings 780 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
37
Exit velocity85.4
19
Hard-hit%37.4%
41
xBA0.276
12
xSLG0.467
35
xwOBA0.294
36 -24 vs proj
BB%13.3%
89 +31 vs proj
Bat speed68.1
30
K%24.5%
37 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · CF
40
Arm Strength91.1 · CF
32
Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF
98
Range Runs6.0 · CF
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.7 · CF
95
Bolts15.0 · CF
80
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
95
Sprint Speed28.8 · CF
89
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions70.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.254
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.278 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.000
Opposing pitcherJoe Ryan
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)