Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-07-12 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-12

Evan Carter

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 7 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupTEX vs HOUCristian Javier
Sample621.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.9
F 16.6
V 12.2
Model 18.1% Market 11.0% Gap +6.7pp
DraftKings 780 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 53.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 53.3% Market 68.2% Gap +8.8pp
FanDuel 185 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 14.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 14.0% Market -- Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel 500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
34
Exit velocity84.5
13
Hard-hit%36.8%
40
xBA0.276
12
xSLG0.465
34
xwOBA0.293
35
BB%13.3%
90
Bat speed68.2
30
K%25.1%
36
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.0 · CF
22
Arm Strength91.1 · CF
31
Outs Above Avg7.0 · CF
98
Range Runs6.1 · CF
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.6 · CF
91
Bolts21.0 · CF
81
SB Success Rate90.9% · CF
81
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
89
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.4%
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3%
29
Correct Decisions70.0%
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.253
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.278 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.004
Opposing pitcherCristian Javier
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)