Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Evan Carter

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs ATLGrant Holmes
Sample628.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.1
F 15.5
V 10.5
Model 17.6% Market 11.0% Gap +6.2pp
DraftKings 780 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 53.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 53.2% Market 68.2% Gap +8.8pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 13.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.5% Market -- Gap +7.8pp
FanDuel 400 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
33
Exit velocity84.8
16
Hard-hit%37.3%
43
xBA0.281
14
xSLG0.468
34
xwOBA0.293
35
BB%12.9%
89
Bat speed68.3
31
K%25.1%
36
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.1 · CF
18
Arm Strength91.1 · CF
30
Outs Above Avg7.0 · CF
98
Range Runs6.4 · CF
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.5 · CF
91
Bolts24.0 · CF
84
SB Success Rate90.9% · CF
81
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
89
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.4%
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3%
29
Correct Decisions70.0%
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.253
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.278 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.007
Opposing pitcherGrant Holmes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)