Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-05-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-24

Jac Caglianone

KC · Hitter · bats L · age 23
IN · 6 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs SEABryan Woo
Sample364.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 8.8
F 13.6
V 10.2
Model 18.0% Market 12.9% Gap +4.7pp
DraftKings 650 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 22.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.5% Market 42.9% Gap -2.9pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.6%
90 +19 vs proj
Exit velocity93.8
96
Hard-hit%56.1%
97 +35 vs proj
xBA0.382
90
xSLG0.682
88
xwOBA0.336
71
BB%7.3%
33
Bat speed74.8
97
K%31.1%
11 -36 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.6 · RF
97
Arm Strength102.7 · RF
100
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs-0.6 · RF
39
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · RF
56
Sprint Speed27.1 · RF
47
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 48.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions48.5%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.236 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.229
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.282 · thin sample
thin sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.263 to 0.396
RegressionPositive · 0.009
Opposing pitcherBryan Woo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)