Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-08-09 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-09

Jac Caglianone

KC · Hitter · bats L · age 23
IN · 3 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupKC vs CHCMatthew Boyd
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.3
F 13.3
V 15.8
Model 21.8% Market 13.8% Gap +7.5pp
DraftKings 600 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 51.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.4% Market 62.3% Gap +10.5pp
BetMGM -165 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.5%
95 +20 vs proj
Exit velocity93.1
97
Hard-hit%55.1%
98 +27 vs proj
xBA0.391
96
xSLG0.719
96
xwOBA0.362
92 +16 vs proj
BB%6.5%
27 -22 vs proj
Bat speed75.7
99
K%26.9%
26 -23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.7 · RF
88
Arm Strength102.7 · RF
100
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
21
Range Runs-5.5 · RF
5
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · RF
60
SB Success Rate80.0% · RF
47
Sprint Speed27.0 · RF
39

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.263 to 0.396
RegressionPositive · 0.006
Opposing pitcherMatthew Boyd
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)