Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-05-23 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-23

Colson Montgomery

CWS · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCWS vs SFAdrian Houser
Sample435.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.1
F 11.1
V 8.4
Model 16.7% Market 22.7% Gap +3.3pp
DraftKings 325 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 63.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.8% Market 69.0% Gap -3.6pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.4%
77
Exit velocity90.2
73
Hard-hit%43.2%
63
xBA0.325
49
xSLG0.682
88
xwOBA0.326
63
BB%9.1%
53
Bat speed74.3
96
K%31.3%
10
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength81.2 · SS
17
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
71
Range Runs6.3 · SS
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.5 · SS
4
Sprint Speed26.3 · SS
26
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 16.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions70.6%
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.333
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.363
RegressionNegative · -0.046
Opposing pitcherAdrian Houser
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)