Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-06-09 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-09

Colson Montgomery

CWS · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCWS vs ATLGrant Holmes
Sample491.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.0
F 11.4
V 11.4
Model 17.8% Market 23.3% Gap -5.4pp
BetMGM 330 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.0% Market 68.5% Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel 120 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +10.1pp
FanDuel 10000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
76
Exit velocity89.8
67
Hard-hit%45.4%
75 +15 vs proj
xBA0.332
59
xSLG0.675
88
xwOBA0.326
64
BB%9.2%
55
Bat speed74.3
96
K%31.6%
7
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.5 · SS
22
Outs Above Avg3.0 · SS
88
Range Runs7.9 · SS
99
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.9 · SS
3
Sprint Speed26.4 · SS
26
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.5%
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.9%
72
Correct Decisions66.6%
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.311 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.319
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.363 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.314
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.363
RegressionNegative · -0.036
Opposing pitcherGrant Holmes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)