Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Colson Montgomery

CWS · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 4 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCWS vs NYYMax Fried
Sample622.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 52.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.1% Market 63.0% Gap +10.3pp
BetMGM -170 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 11.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 11.3% Market -- Gap +13.1pp
FanDuel 340 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
80
Exit velocity89.0
62
Hard-hit%42.9%
67
xBA0.342
72
xSLG0.682
92
xwOBA0.319
63
BB%8.3%
48
Bat speed74.4
96
K%32.4%
8
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · SS
22
Arm Strength82.5 · SS
19
Outs Above Avg2.0 · SS
77
Range Runs3.9 · SS
85
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.5 · SS
13
Sprint Speed26.6 · SS
29
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.2%
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1%
60
Correct Decisions65.8%
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.311 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.319
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.364 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.299
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.363
RegressionNegative · -0.025
Opposing pitcherMax Fried
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)