Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-08-05 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-05

Colson Montgomery

CWS · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCWS vs BOSSonny Gray
Sample654.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.6
F 12.4
V 11.7
Model 18.4% Market 23.3% Gap -4.9pp
BetMGM 330 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.4% Market 72.6% Gap +13.2pp
BetMGM -265 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 14.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 14.7% Market -- Gap +11.3pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.8%
77
Exit velocity89.2
64
Hard-hit%42.0%
65
xBA0.334
65
xSLG0.661
90
xwOBA0.310
57
BB%8.3%
47
Bat speed74.5
97
K%32.8%
7
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · SS
23
Arm Strength82.5 · SS
19
Outs Above Avg2.0 · SS
78
Range Runs4.7 · SS
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.4 · SS
7
Sprint Speed26.5 · SS
27
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.1%
32
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.3%
58
Correct Decisions65.8%
47
Resists FastballwOBA 0.293
98
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
38
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.311 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.311
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.367 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.403
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.363
RegressionNegative · -0.029
Opposing pitcherSonny Gray
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)