Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Colson Montgomery

CWS · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCWS vs MINZebby Matthews
Sample753.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.3
F 10.7
V 11.8
Model 16.6% Market 22.7% Gap +3.5pp
DraftKings 325 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.0% Market 72.6% Gap +13.6pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 16.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 16.9% Market -- Gap +5.5pp
FanDuel 370 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.5%
75
Exit velocity88.7
61
Hard-hit%42.0%
67
xBA0.338
72
xSLG0.658
91
xwOBA0.305
49 -19 vs proj
BB%8.4%
50
Bat speed74.4
96
K%34.2%
5 -18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · SS
22
Arm Strength86.5 · SS
45
Outs Above Avg3.0 · SS
84
Range Runs7.4 · SS
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.0 · SS
12
Sprint Speed26.6 · SS
28
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.8%
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7%
54
Correct Decisions65.5%
43
Resists FastballwOBA 0.288
100
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
35
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.262 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.311
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.369 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.391
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.363
RegressionNegative · -0.024
Opposing pitcherZebby Matthews
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)