Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Hunter Goodman

COL · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs CINHunter Greene
Sample1163.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 15.1
Model 16.6% Market 17.4% Gap -1.4pp
DraftKings 455 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 51.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 51.8% Market 66.7% Gap +8.5pp
FanDuel -135 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 13.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.7% Market -- Gap +19.7pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.7%
95
Exit velocity91.3
88
Hard-hit%47.7%
85
xBA0.371
89
xSLG0.734
96
xwOBA0.331
72
BB%8.4%
49 +28 vs proj
Bat speed73.9
93
K%31.4%
11 -32 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.5 · C
73
Catcher Throwing-0.2 · C
46
Framing Runs-1.8 · C
27
Pop Time1.9 · C
59
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.8 · C
2
SB Success Rate50.0% · C
3
Sprint Speed27.4 · C
51
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.2%
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.1%
40
Correct Decisions61.0%
11
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90
11
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.295
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.338 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.317
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.412
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.273 to 0.354
RegressionNegative · -0.076
Opposing pitcherHunter Greene
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)