Mithrandir Metrics
WSH 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Jacob Young

WSH · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupWSH vs MIA--
Sample1270.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits 1.5
P 13.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.9% Market -- Gap +8.4pp
FanDuel 350 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
42 +32 vs proj
Exit velocity86.4
33
Hard-hit%32.0%
23
xBA0.320
52
xSLG0.481
43
xwOBA0.318
67 +24 vs proj
BB%7.4%
37
Bat speed66.5
16
K%16.7%
83
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · CF
31
Arm Strength94.2 · CF
56
Outs Above Avg12.0 · CF
99
Range Runs10.6 · CF
99
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.6 · CF
88
Bolts24.0 · CF
79
SB Success Rate86.7% · CF
71
Sprint Speed29.2 · CF
93
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.3%
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.5%
10
Correct Decisions65.6%
45
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
42
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.247 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.308 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.268 to 0.331
RegressionNegative · -0.020
Opposing pitcher--
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)