Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Ben Rice

NYY · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto
Sample960.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.3
F 15.5
V 11.9
Model 16.7% Market 15.5% Gap +0.6pp
FanDuel 520 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 59.9% Market 70.6% Gap +9.3pp
FanDuel 100 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 13.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.2% Market -- Gap +18.8pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.6%
94
Exit velocity92.1
92
Hard-hit%47.0%
83
xBA0.375
91
xSLG0.717
95
xwOBA0.384
97
BB%11.8%
84
Bat speed70.7
68
K%23.4%
43 -22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 1B
5
Range Runs-4.3 · 1B
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · 1B
35
Sprint Speed26.7 · 1B
32
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.5%
86
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3%
49
Correct Decisions69.0%
78
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
81
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.313 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.334
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.446
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.342
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.333 to 0.413
RegressionNegative · -0.049
Opposing pitcherYoshinobu Yamamoto
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)