Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Ben Rice

NYY · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 6 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs SDWalker Buehler
Sample1121.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.4
F 13.2
V 11.9
Model 15.0% Market 15.7% Gap -1.2pp
DraftKings 515 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.5% Market 70.6% Gap +12.8pp
BetMGM -240 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.9%
93
Exit velocity91.9
92
Hard-hit%48.1%
89
xBA0.370
93
xSLG0.709
95
xwOBA0.372
97
BB%11.5%
84
Bat speed70.9
71
K%25.1%
37 -29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 1B
5
Range Runs-4.7 · 1B
15
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · DH
37
Sprint Speed26.8 · DH
32
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.1%
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%
52
Correct Decisions69.4%
81
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.323
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.306 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.446
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.330
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.333 to 0.413
RegressionNegative · -0.014
Opposing pitcherWalker Buehler
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)