Mithrandir Metrics
CLE 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Kyle Manzardo

CLE · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCLE vs PITPaul Skenes
Sample891.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.1
F 12.2
V 14.9
Model 16.2% Market 17.1% Gap -1.5pp
DraftKings 465 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 51.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 51.7% Market 66.1% Gap +8.1pp
FanDuel 190 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 13.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.2% Market -- Gap +4.8pp
FanDuel 500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
70
Exit velocity89.1
62
Hard-hit%39.0%
50
xBA0.347
76
xSLG0.586
73
xwOBA0.309
53
BB%10.2%
69 +26 vs proj
Bat speed67.9
26
K%31.6%
10 -31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
12
Range Runs-2.2 · 1B
25
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.4 · 1B
9
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.7%
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.5%
37
Correct Decisions65.9%
47
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.313 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.285 to 0.354
RegressionNegative · -0.027
Opposing pitcherPaul Skenes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)