Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-08-30 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-30

Roman Anthony

BOS · Hitter · bats L · age 22
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupBOS vs NYYWill Warren
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.1
F 14.1
V 10.2
Model 20.2% Market 12.1% Gap +7.7pp
DraftKings 700 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 78.4% Market 79.4% Gap +15.3pp
BetMGM -385 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
60
Exit velocity92.5
96
Hard-hit%49.4%
92
xBA0.377
95
xSLG0.590
77
xwOBA0.352
91
BB%15.2%
98
Bat speed74.0
94
K%24.8%
38
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength92.9 · LF
47
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
22
Arm Runs1.0 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-0.5 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.4 · LF
49
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.396
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherWill Warren
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)