Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Roman Anthony

BOS · Hitter · bats L · age 22
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBOS vs BALShane Baz
Sample388.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 11.3
Model 17.9% Market 12.1% Gap +5.4pp
DraftKings 700 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 60.8% Market 79.4% Gap +16.0pp
FanDuel -110 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 23.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.2% Market -- Gap +11.2pp
FanDuel 190 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.5%
75
Exit velocity92.9
97
Hard-hit%52.0%
96
xBA0.397
97
xSLG0.625
85
xwOBA0.366
96
BB%14.2%
95 +17 vs proj
Bat speed74.0
94
K%24.3%
42 +18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength92.9 · LF
47
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
24
Arm Runs1.0 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-0.5 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.6 · DH
53
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.4%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.6%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.321 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.348 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.396
RegressionNegative · -0.030
Opposing pitcherShane Baz
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)