Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-06-19 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-19

Jackson Merrill

SD · Hitter · bats L · age 23
IN · 3 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs TEXJacob deGrom
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.7
F 13.4
V 13.4
Model 20.1% Market 15.5% Gap +4.0pp
FanDuel 520 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.7%
73
Exit velocity89.2
60
Hard-hit%47.9%
86
xBA0.327
55
xSLG0.591
72
xwOBA0.317
59
BB%7.7%
37
Bat speed71.5
76
K%23.7%
40
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.6 · CF
90
Arm Strength95.6 · CF
75
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
79
Range Runs0.9 · CF
64
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.3 · CF
92
Bolts5.0 · CF
55
SB Success Rate87.5% · CF
76
Sprint Speed28.7 · CF
87
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.0%
23
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.7%
91
Correct Decisions67.1%
61
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.257 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.268 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.395
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.332 to 0.415
RegressionPositive · 0.016
Opposing pitcherJacob deGrom
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)