Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Jackson Merrill

SD · Hitter · bats L · age 23
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs KCSeth Lugo
Sample1354.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.5
F 13.2
V 14.9
Model 20.4% Market 15.5% Gap +4.2pp
FanDuel 520 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 69.9
F 69.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V 69.1 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 81.3% Market 82.3% Gap +12.4pp
BetMGM -465 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
63 -26 vs proj
Exit velocity88.4
53
Hard-hit%45.5%
78
xBA0.332
60
xSLG0.561
67
xwOBA0.306
47 -46 vs proj
BB%7.1%
31
Bat speed71.5
75
K%24.6%
38 -31 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs4.3 · CF
100
Arm Strength95.6 · CF
71
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs0.6 · CF
51
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.0 · CF
97
Bolts10.0 · CF
69
SB Success Rate92.9% · CF
84
Sprint Speed29.0 · CF
90
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.4%
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.5%
90
Correct Decisions67.1%
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
52
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.266 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.389
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.332 to 0.415
RegressionPositive · 0.007
Opposing pitcherSeth Lugo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)