Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Jackson Merrill

SD · Hitter · bats L · age 23
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs KCNoah Cameron
Sample1363.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.6
F 9.3
V 12.5
Model 17.6% Market 14.6% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 560 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.2% Market 78.7% Gap +11.4pp
FanDuel -155 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 25.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 25.0% Market -- Gap +19.5pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
65 -24 vs proj
Exit velocity88.4
53
Hard-hit%45.6%
79
xBA0.332
61
xSLG0.565
68
xwOBA0.307
50 -44 vs proj
BB%7.0%
30
Bat speed71.5
75
K%24.6%
40 -30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs4.3 · CF
100
Arm Strength96.7 · CF
75
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs0.7 · CF
52
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.6 · CF
96
Bolts10.0 · CF
68
SB Success Rate86.7% · CF
69
Sprint Speed29.0 · CF
90
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.4%
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.5%
90
Correct Decisions67.1%
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
52
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.266 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.389
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.332 to 0.415
RegressionPositive · 0.012
Opposing pitcherNoah Cameron
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)