Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Jackson Merrill

SD · Hitter
IN · 5 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSD vs CINBrady Singer
Sample1513.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.8
F 11.7
V 14.3
Model 21.0% Market 15.5% Gap +4.8pp
FanDuel 520 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 68.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.1% Market 82.3% Gap +16.3pp
FanDuel -130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 29.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 29.5% Market -- Gap +6.2pp
FanDuel 180 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.4%
82
Exit velocity90.0
77
Hard-hit%46.7%
85
xBA0.351
80
xSLG0.636
86
xwOBA0.333
80 -17 vs proj
BB%6.5%
29
Bat speed71.5
76
K%24.2%
41 -29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs4.9 · CF
99
Arm Strength97.6 · CF
82
Outs Above Avg4.0 · CF
94
Range Runs3.5 · CF
83
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs5.3 · CF
97
Bolts17.0 · CF
74
SB Success Rate89.5% · CF
79
Sprint Speed29.0 · CF
89
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.7%
21
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.4%
92
Correct Decisions67.1%
60
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322
78
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
52
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.249 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.295 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.387
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.007
Opposing pitcherBrady Singer
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)