Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Jackson Merrill

SD · Hitter · bats L · age 23
IN · 3 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSD vs NYYMax Fried
Sample1525.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.2
F 9.7
V 11.0
Model 14.9% Market 14.8% Gap -0.4pp
DraftKings 555 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.7% Market 77.8% Gap +15.4pp
BetMGM -350 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.7%
85
Exit velocity90.2
80
Hard-hit%47.4%
87
xBA0.354
84
xSLG0.643
88
xwOBA0.336
81 -15 vs proj
BB%6.4%
27
Bat speed71.5
75
K%24.2%
42 -28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs4.9 · CF
99
Arm Strength97.6 · CF
82
Outs Above Avg4.0 · CF
95
Range Runs4.2 · CF
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs5.6 · CF
98
Bolts18.0 · CF
74
SB Success Rate89.5% · CF
79
Sprint Speed29.0 · CF
90
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.5%
21
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.5%
90
Correct Decisions66.9%
58
Resists FastballwOBA 0.324
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.253 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.295 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.388
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.332 to 0.415
RegressionPositive · 0.010
Opposing pitcherMax Fried
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)