Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-05-30 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-30

Nick Kurtz

ATH · Hitter · bats L · age 23
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATH vs NYYRyan Weathers
Sample621.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.3
F 11.4
V 11.4
Model 18.7% Market 25.4% Gap +4.1pp
DraftKings 280 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 76.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.7% Market 74.1% Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel -340 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.2%
84
Exit velocity94.5
98
Hard-hit%59.5%
100 +16 vs proj
xBA0.399
96
xSLG0.749
96
xwOBA0.380
91
BB%19.8%
100 +21 vs proj
Bat speed76.1
99
K%29.9%
13
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
44
Range Runs-0.6 · 1B
35
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · 1B
26
SB Success Rate83.3% · 1B
58
Sprint Speed26.6 · 1B
30
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.6%
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.8%
72
Correct Decisions72.0%
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
95
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.331 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.316 to 0.401
RegressionNegative · -0.043
Opposing pitcherRyan Weathers
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)