Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-05-31 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-31

Nick Kurtz

ATH · Hitter
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATH vs NYYWill Warren
Sample625.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.8
F 13.6
V 13.6
Model 21.1% Market 26.5% Gap +2.7pp
DraftKings 265 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 49.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.1% Market 47.8% Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
Hits 2.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel 8000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.5%
85
Exit velocity94.4
98
Hard-hit%59.0%
100 +15 vs proj
xBA0.399
96
xSLG0.763
97
xwOBA0.382
93
BB%19.5%
100 +21 vs proj
Bat speed76.1
99
K%29.8%
13
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
45
Range Runs-0.6 · 1B
36
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · 1B
26
SB Success Rate83.3% · 1B
60
Sprint Speed26.6 · 1B
30
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.6%
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.8%
72
Correct Decisions72.0%
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
95
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.331 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.355
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.042
Opposing pitcherWill Warren
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)