Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-06-02 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-02

Nick Kurtz

ATH · Hitter · bats L · age 23
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATH vs CHCJameson Taillon
Sample628.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.1
F 11.4
V 11.4
Model 18.4% Market 26.5% Gap +5.4pp
DraftKings 265 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 48.2
F 47.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V 47.0 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 48.2% Market 46.8% Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel 105 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%19.6%
100 +20 vs proj
Barrel%9.3%
90
Bat speed76.2
99
Exit velocity94.3
98
Hard-hit%59.3%
100 +16 vs proj
K%29.2%
17
xBA0.407
97
xSLG0.787
98
xwOBA0.392
96
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 1B
45
Range Runs-0.9 · 1B
34
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.4 · 1B
31
SB Success Rate83.3% · 1B
60
Sprint Speed26.6 · 1B
30
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.8% · rebadged research
95
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.6% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions72.3% · rebadged research
93
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
95
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.332 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.364 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.376 · validated
validated

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.316 to 0.401
RegressionNegative · -0.046
Opposing pitcherJameson Taillon
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-01
Palantir 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)