Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-06-14 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-14

Nick Kurtz

ATH · Hitter · bats L · age 23
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupATH vs COLTomoyuki Sugano
Sample669.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 23.4
F 14.2
V 14.2
Model 23.8% Market 27.0% Gap -3.2pp
BetMGM 270 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 73.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.0% Market 77.1% Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel -160 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 29.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 29.2% Market -- Gap +7.9pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.5%
93
Exit velocity94.3
98
Hard-hit%58.5%
100
xBA0.403
96
xSLG0.819
99
xwOBA0.398
98 +15 vs proj
BB%19.8%
100 +19 vs proj
Bat speed76.1
99
K%29.0%
17
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
10
Range Runs-2.2 · 1B
20
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · 1B
31
SB Success Rate85.7% · 1B
70
Sprint Speed26.6 · 1B
30
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.3%
96
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.7%
74
Correct Decisions72.2%
94
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
95
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.330 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.316 to 0.401
RegressionNegative · -0.051
Opposing pitcherTomoyuki Sugano
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)