Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-06-02 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-02

Caleb Durbin

BOS · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 9 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupBOS vs BALShane Baz
Sample609.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 45.3
F 67.2 EXPERIMENTAL
V 66.0 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 45.3% Market 63.8% Gap +2.2pp
FanDuel 195 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 98.0
F 98.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +7.9pp
FanDuel 20000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%5.9%
19
Barrel%1.5%
9 -15 vs proj
Bat speed65.1
7
Exit velocity84.3
11
Hard-hit%29.7%
13
K%15.7%
85
xBA0.269
11
xSLG0.348
5
xwOBA0.266
14 -42 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.8 · 3B
26
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 3B
93
Range Runs1.9 · 3B
74
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · 3B
80
SB Success Rate60.0% · 3B
14
Sprint Speed28.1 · 3B
72
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.9% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.5% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Correct Decisions65.7% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.262 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.258 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.293 · validated
validated
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
Limited

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.351
RegressionNegative · -0.033
Opposing pitcherShane Baz
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-02
Palantir 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d error rising
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)