Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Caleb Durbin

BOS · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 6 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupBOS vs TEXJack Leiter
Sample636.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 45.7
F 67.5 EXPERIMENTAL
V 66.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 45.7% Market 64.3% Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel 180 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 13.8
F 15.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 13.8% Market -- Gap +9.0pp
FanDuel 340 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.2%
15
Exit velocity84.6
13
Hard-hit%31.7%
19
xBA0.286
19
xSLG0.390
11
xwOBA0.285
26 -29 vs proj
BB%5.6%
16
Bat speed65.7
10
K%14.7%
87
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.8 · 3B
25
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B
88
Range Runs1.9 · 3B
74
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.4 · 3B
85
SB Success Rate66.7% · 3B
21
Sprint Speed28.1 · 3B
72
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.256 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.294
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.351
RegressionNegative · -0.030
Opposing pitcherJack Leiter
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-14
Palantir 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)