Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-05-23 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-23

Chandler Simpson

TB · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs NYYRyan Weathers
Sample603.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 1.5
P 38.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 38.6% Market 66.9% Gap -3.4pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.0%
2
Exit velocity81.6
5
Hard-hit%16.3%
2
xBA0.287
19
xSLG0.328
3
xwOBA0.262
13 -38 vs proj
BB%4.5%
11 -16 vs proj
Bat speed61.9
2
K%9.5%
99
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.2 · LF
14
Arm Strength96.1 · LF
79
Outs Above Avg5.0 · LF
98
Range Runs4.9 · LF
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.6 · LF
100
Bolts38.0 · LF
99
SB Success Rate85.7% · LF
65
Sprint Speed29.6 · LF
97
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 50.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 60.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions54.5%
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline86
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.284 to 0.339
RegressionNegative · -0.090
Opposing pitcherRyan Weathers
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)