Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-05-25 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-25

Chandler Simpson

TB · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs BALKyle Bradish
Sample607.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 0.9
F 0.0
V 0.0
Model 3.3% Market 8.0% Gap -4.7pp
BetMGM 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 28.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 28.9% Market 52.2% Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel 350 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 31.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 31.4% Market -- Gap +5.0pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.0%
2
Exit velocity81.6
5
Hard-hit%16.1%
1
xBA0.283
17
xSLG0.324
2
xwOBA0.258
11 -42 vs proj
BB%4.4%
11 -16 vs proj
Bat speed61.6
1
K%9.7%
98
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.2 · LF
13
Arm Strength96.1 · LF
79
Outs Above Avg6.0 · LF
98
Range Runs5.0 · LF
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.3 · LF
99
Bolts41.0 · LF
99
SB Success Rate80.0% · LF
47
Sprint Speed29.5 · LF
96
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 58.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions58.3%
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline85
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.284 to 0.339
RegressionNegative · -0.087
Opposing pitcherKyle Bradish
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)