Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Chandler Simpson

TB · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs TEXTrevor Williams
Sample909.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 4.3
F 0.0
V 5.3
Model 3.9% Market 8.0% Gap -4.1pp
BetMGM 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 79.7% Market 80.8% Gap +16.6pp
BetMGM -420 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.0%
1
Exit velocity80.5
3
Hard-hit%12.9%
1
xBA0.282
15
xSLG0.322
2
xwOBA0.262
13 -47 vs proj
BB%4.3%
11 -19 vs proj
Bat speed60.9
1
K%7.9%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-3.8 · LF
3
Arm Strength96.1 · LF
70
Outs Above Avg7.0 · LF
97
Range Runs6.9 · LF
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs6.4 · LF
99
Bolts102.0 · LF
100
SB Success Rate75.7% · LF
36
Sprint Speed29.5 · LF
95
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.5%
51
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.5%
22
Correct Decisions64.7%
34
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.329 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.284 to 0.339
RegressionNegative · -0.081
Opposing pitcherTrevor Williams
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)