Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-06-01 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-01

Jakob Marsee

MIA · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIA vs WSHCade Cavalli
Sample417.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
Model 14.1% Market 10.1% Gap +3.6pp
DraftKings 855 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.8
F 75.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 74.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 59.8% Market 72.6% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 160 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F 2.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +3.9pp
FanDuel 12500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.5%
83 +48 vs proj
Barrel%2.3%
18 -31 vs proj
Bat speed67.7
25
Exit velocity85.3
17
Hard-hit%36.3%
34
K%23.3%
40 -23 vs proj
xBA0.291
23
xSLG0.423
21
xwOBA0.296
37
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · CF
26
Arm Strength95.0 · CF
72
Outs Above Avg4.0 · CF
96
Range Runs3.2 · CF
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.3 · CF
87
SB Success Rate71.4% · CF
29
Sprint Speed27.9 · CF
67
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.4% · rebadged research
87
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0% · rebadged research
41
Correct Decisions68.2% · rebadged research
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.302 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.331 · validated
validated

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.259 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.003
Opposing pitcherCade Cavalli
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-01
Palantir 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3096 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d error falling
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)