Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-07-26 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-26

Jakob Marsee

MIA · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupMIA vs SDWalker Buehler
Sample552.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.5
F 13.4
V 12.6
Model 15.7% Market 10.1% Gap +5.2pp
DraftKings 855 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.2% Market 75.3% Gap +13.8pp
BetMGM -305 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 24.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.6% Market -- Gap +4.5pp
FanDuel 380 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.9%
11 -38 vs proj
Exit velocity85.1
19
Hard-hit%33.3%
25 -19 vs proj
xBA0.296
23
xSLG0.420
19
xwOBA0.297
40
BB%12.2%
86 +46 vs proj
Bat speed67.3
22
K%22.3%
52
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.6 · CF
12
Arm Strength95.0 · CF
65
Outs Above Avg5.0 · CF
96
Range Runs4.3 · CF
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · CF
45
SB Success Rate61.1% · CF
15
Sprint Speed27.8 · CF
61
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.9%
88
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.9%
34
Correct Decisions67.7%
65
Resists FastballwOBA 0.295
99
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.337 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.338
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.259 to 0.368
RegressionPositive · 0.006
Opposing pitcherWalker Buehler
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)