Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Jakob Marsee

MIA · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 2 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIA vs CHCShota Imanaga
Sample657.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.3
F 11.7
V 10.8
Model 13.0% Market 9.4% Gap +3.3pp
DraftKings 930 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 53.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 53.2% Market 71.0% Gap +12.8pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 19.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.8% Market -- Gap +3.8pp
FanDuel 490 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.4%
15 -38 vs proj
Exit velocity85.5
23
Hard-hit%34.7%
32 -16 vs proj
xBA0.296
26
xSLG0.426
22
xwOBA0.303
47
BB%12.6%
90 +51 vs proj
Bat speed66.7
18
K%21.2%
59
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.6 · CF
6
Arm Strength95.0 · CF
60
Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF
97
Range Runs5.8 · CF
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.4 · CF
33
SB Success Rate60.0% · CF
11
Sprint Speed27.9 · CF
62
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.0%
92
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.8%
42
Correct Decisions69.4%
82
Resists FastballwOBA 0.302
96
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
87
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.302 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.302
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.365 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.333
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.259 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherShota Imanaga
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)