Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Chase Meidroth

CWS · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCWS vs MINZebby Matthews
Sample948.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 4.6
F 5.7
V 9.0
Model 6.6% Market 7.7% Gap -1.4pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 39.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 39.4% Market 69.2% Gap +12.3pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.5% Market -- Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 300 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.9%
22
Exit velocity85.8
26
Hard-hit%35.3%
34 -16 vs proj
xBA0.316
46
xSLG0.447
30
xwOBA0.294
37
BB%9.4%
60
Bat speed64.2
5
K%21.6%
55 -34 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 2B
34
Arm Strength81.8 · 2B
9
Outs Above Avg8.0 · 2B
94
Range Runs6.7 · 2B
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · 2B
63
Sprint Speed27.3 · 2B
47
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.9%
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.7%
15
Correct Decisions64.2%
29
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346
34
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
50
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.311 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.265 to 0.353
RegressionNegative · -0.069
Opposing pitcherZebby Matthews
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)