Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Chase Meidroth

CWS · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCWS vs STLMatthew Liberatore
Sample966.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 5.5
F 7.2
V 9.7
Model 7.9% Market 7.7% Gap -0.1pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.1% Market 72.2% Gap +13.4pp
BetMGM -260 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.8%
21
Exit velocity85.9
27
Hard-hit%35.2%
34 -15 vs proj
xBA0.313
43
xSLG0.443
29
xwOBA0.292
38
BB%9.5%
63
Bat speed64.3
5
K%21.8%
56 -33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 2B
33
Arm Strength81.8 · 2B
8
Outs Above Avg8.0 · 2B
93
Range Runs6.6 · 2B
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · 2B
60
Sprint Speed27.3 · 2B
47
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.0%
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.6%
15
Correct Decisions64.6%
32
Resists FastballwOBA 0.339
47
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
52
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.265 to 0.353
RegressionNegative · -0.065
Opposing pitcherMatthew Liberatore
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)