Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Jacob Wilson

ATH · Hitter
IL60 · 6 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupATH vs SEALogan Gilbert
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 7.2
F 0.0
V 7.5
Model 9.4% Market 8.7% Gap +0.4pp
DraftKings 1005 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.5% Market 69.7% Gap +12.6pp
BetMGM -230 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.0%
12
Exit velocity83.9
12
Hard-hit%29.3%
15
xBA0.299
28
xSLG0.394
11
xwOBA0.282
27
BB%3.4%
5
Bat speed62.6
2
K%11.1%
97
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
73
Arm Strength91.8 · SS
82
Outs Above Avg9.0 · SS
95
Range Runs6.9 · SS
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · SS
52
Bolts1.0 · SS
11
Sprint Speed27.0 · SS
39
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.7%
12
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6%
45
Correct Decisions63.3%
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
12
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.309
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.049
Opposing pitcherLogan Gilbert
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)