Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Luke Keaschall

MIN · Hitter · bats R · age 24
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs CHCShota Imanaga
Sample494.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.7
F 7.4
V 12.6
Model 15.3% Market 10.9% Gap +4.0pp
DraftKings 785 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 53.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 53.8% Market 76.5% Gap +10.8pp
FanDuel 185 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 24.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.5% Market -- Gap +5.8pp
FanDuel 380 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.6%
17 -23 vs proj
Exit velocity84.7
15
Hard-hit%31.0%
17
xBA0.283
16
xSLG0.409
15
xwOBA0.300
43
BB%9.2%
58 +24 vs proj
Bat speed66.9
19
K%14.2%
89
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · 2B
10
Arm Strength92.3 · 2B
85
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · 2B
3
Range Runs-4.5 · 2B
12
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.6 · 2B
96
Bolts1.0 · 2B
15
SB Success Rate84.6% · 2B
62
Sprint Speed28.8 · 2B
87
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.4%
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6%
44
Correct Decisions68.8%
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
78
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.317 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.333
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.062
Opposing pitcherShota Imanaga
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)