Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-08-15 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-15

Luke Keaschall

MIN · Hitter · bats R · age 24
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs PHIJesús Luzardo
Sample562.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.8
F 11.8
V 12.5
Model 11.9% Market 10.9% Gap +0.7pp
DraftKings 785 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.5% Market 75.3% Gap +13.6pp
BetMGM -305 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 23.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.4% Market -- Gap +5.4pp
FanDuel 400 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.7%
19 -22 vs proj
Exit velocity84.8
17
Hard-hit%30.8%
18
xBA0.291
20
xSLG0.421
21
xwOBA0.306
51
BB%9.6%
63 +28 vs proj
Bat speed66.9
20
K%14.5%
89
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · 2B
10
Arm Strength92.3 · 2B
84
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 2B
4
Range Runs-8.9 · 2B
3
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.8 · 2B
91
Bolts1.0 · 2B
14
SB Success Rate78.6% · 2B
41
Sprint Speed28.8 · 2B
87
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.3%
88
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4%
47
Correct Decisions69.0%
79
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.309 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.363
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.057
Opposing pitcherJesús Luzardo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)