Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Luke Keaschall

MIN · Hitter · bats R · age 24
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIN vs CWSErick Fedde
Sample632.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 8.1
F 0.0
V 9.6
Model 10.0% Market 10.6% Gap -1.0pp
FanDuel 810 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 49.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.2% Market 73.3% Gap +13.8pp
FanDuel 110 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 25.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 25.8% Market -- Gap +5.5pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.9%
22
Exit velocity85.5
23
Hard-hit%31.6%
21
xBA0.299
29
xSLG0.440
28
xwOBA0.317
66
BB%9.1%
58
Bat speed66.8
19
K%14.4%
90
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.6 · 2B
3
Arm Strength92.3 · 2B
84
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 2B
5
Range Runs-9.3 · 2B
3
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.7 · 2B
88
Bolts1.0 · 2B
11
SB Success Rate70.6% · 2B
24
Sprint Speed28.7 · 2B
84
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.8%
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%
52
Correct Decisions68.6%
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
81
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.320 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.301 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.384
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.060
Opposing pitcherErick Fedde
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)