Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-06-09 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-09

Matt Shaw

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 8 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs COLTomoyuki Sugano
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 2.5
P 23.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.6% Market 25.6% Gap +1.9pp
DraftKings 305 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
33
Exit velocity85.8
21
Hard-hit%37.0%
39 +18 vs proj
xBA0.313
37
xSLG0.473
37
xwOBA0.299
40 -18 vs proj
BB%7.1%
31 -19 vs proj
Bat speed65.4
8
K%19.0%
67
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · RF
45
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
44
Range Runs-0.2 · RF
54
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts3.0 · RF
44
Sprint Speed29.0 · RF
92
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9%
Small sample
Correct Decisions63.1%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.276 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.118
Opposing pitcherTomoyuki Sugano
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)