Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-09 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-09

Matt Shaw

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IL10 · 8 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs BALTrevor Rogers
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 58.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.2% Market 67.2% Gap +8.4pp
BetMGM -205 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
27
Exit velocity85.8
25
Hard-hit%37.3%
42
xBA0.304
30
xSLG0.453
30
xwOBA0.301
43
BB%8.9%
53
Bat speed66.5
16
K%19.5%
67
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.6 · RF
68
Arm Strength90.0 · RF
22
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs0.9 · RF
60
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · RF
16
Bolts4.0 · RF
51
Sprint Speed29.0 · RF
91
SB Success Rate75.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6%
Small sample
Correct Decisions63.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.309 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.364
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.276 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.110
Opposing pitcherTrevor Rogers
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)