Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Matt Shaw

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IL10 · 8 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs MINBailey Ober
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 55.5
F 56.7 EXPERIMENTAL
V 55.5 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 62.1% Market 63.0% Gap +7.4pp
BetMGM -170 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
26
Exit velocity85.8
23
Hard-hit%37.3%
43 +21 vs proj
xBA0.304
30
xSLG0.453
29
xwOBA0.301
44 -18 vs proj
BB%8.9%
53
Bat speed66.5
16
K%19.5%
68
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.6 · RF
69
Arm Strength90.0 · RF
22
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs0.9 · RF
57
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts4.0 · RF
50
Sprint Speed29.0 · RF
90
SB Success Rate75.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6%
Small sample
Correct Decisions63.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.309 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.364
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.276 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.110
Opposing pitcherBailey Ober
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)