Mithrandir Metrics
Player Toronto Blue Jays Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Toronto Blue Jays

Max Scherzer

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 208 lb · Age 42

Cards
19
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Toronto Blue Jays Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024243.9599043.1401.15
2025555.191717085.0821.29
2026276.161313057.0461.39
19 Seasons2231243.2749648703020.035351.09
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal6 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason4.57
ERA current pace6.16
ERA rolling p505.41
Observed weight53%
ERA
4.34 4.85 5.41 5.97 6.47
FIP
4.44 4.73 5.05 5.36 5.65
K%
17.2% 18.7% 20.3% 22.0% 23.4%
BB%
7.2% 8.0% 8.8% 9.7% 10.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
47
ERA6.16
10
BB%10.5%
32 -43 vs proj
K%18.4%
23 -25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.316
46
Barrel allowed9.5%
21
Fastball velo93.2
28
Hard-hit allowed33.9%
81
Whiff%18.3%
14 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-03
Fastball Stuff+104
64
Mithrandir Stuff+103
54
Changeup Stuff+104
68
Curveball Stuff+102
49
Cutter Stuff+96
8
Slider Stuff+101
44
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Scherzer, Max · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.316 2026-08-23: 0.3322026-08-24: 0.3322026-08-25: 0.3322026-08-26: 0.3322026-08-27: 0.3362026-08-28: 0.3362026-08-29: 0.3362026-08-30: 0.3362026-08-31: 0.3162026-09-01: 0.3162026-09-02: 0.3162026-09-03: 0.316 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Scherzer, Max · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scherzer, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.1%Slider: 18.4%Changeup: 16.0%Curveball: 13.5%Cutter: 4.9% FF47% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 47%SL 18%CH 16%CU 14%FC 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scherzer, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphSlider: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.7 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.1 mphCH84 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 75.0 mphCU75 mphCutter: 5% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 88.2 mphFC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.7% 396 104 qualified
SL 21.2% 180 101 limited sample
CH 15.2% 129 104 limited sample
CB 14.3% 121 102 limited sample
FC 2.6% 22 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age42
Height6' 3"
Weight208 lb
Debut2008-04-29
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.83
K% Δ-0.037

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.358
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.316

Scherzer’s wOBA-against sits at 0.358, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.316 — a gap of 0.043, 1.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 62 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching192026-08-30Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.0% K | 4.33 ERAProjection
2026-04-12 vs MIN8 ER / 3 K2.1 IP
2026-04-06 vs LAD2 ER / 2 K2.0 IP
2026-03-31 vs COL1 ER / 4 K6.0 IP