Scherzer, Max
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.57 |
| ERA current pace | 9.64 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 6.09 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 47.2% | 162 | 104 | limited sample |
| SL | 22.4% | 77 | 96 | limited sample |
| CH | 14.9% | 51 | 103 | limited sample |
| CB | 14.0% | 48 | 100 | limited sample |
| FC | 1.5% | 5 | 92 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | +5.31 |
| K% Δ | -0.094 |
| Sample | 23.3 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 137.6 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 579 | -- | -- |
| K% | 22.0% | 16.7% to 28.1% | +/- 5.7% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 5.2% to 9.4% | +/- 2.1% |
| Whiff% | 21.1% | 17.8% to 26.4% | +/- 4.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.63 | 0.98 to 2.69 | +/- 0.85 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.327 | 0.274 to 0.353 | +/- 0.040 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.9% | 5.6% to 13.5% | +/- 4.0% |
| ERA | 4.33 | 3.43 to 6.43 | +/- 1.50 |
| FIP | 4.55 | 3.37 to 5.08 | +/- 0.85 |
| WHIP | 1.279 | 1.072 to 1.603 | +/- 0.265 |
3792 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.316 |
| K% | 18.6% |
| BB% | 7.9% |
| Barrel | 11.2% |
3640 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.290 |
| K% | 22.7% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 9.6% |