Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Scherzer, Max

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
16.7% to 28.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Volatile contact Age 42 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal6 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-03
ERA preseason4.57
ERA current pace6.16
ERA rolling p505.41
Observed weight53%
ERA
4.34 4.85 5.41 5.97 6.47
FIP
4.44 4.73 5.05 5.36 5.65
K%
17.2% 18.7% 20.3% 22.0% 23.4%
BB%
7.2% 8.0% 8.8% 9.7% 10.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-03
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
47
ERA6.16
10
BB%10.5%
32 -43 vs proj
K%18.4%
23 -25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.316
46
Barrel allowed9.5%
21
Fastball velo93.2
28
Hard-hit allowed33.9%
81
Whiff%18.3%
14 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-03
Fastball Stuff+104
64
Mithrandir Stuff+103
54
Changeup Stuff+104
68
Curveball Stuff+102
49
Cutter Stuff+96
8
Slider Stuff+101
44
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Scherzer, Max · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.316 2026-08-23: 0.3322026-08-24: 0.3322026-08-25: 0.3322026-08-26: 0.3322026-08-27: 0.3362026-08-28: 0.3362026-08-29: 0.3362026-08-30: 0.3362026-08-31: 0.3162026-09-01: 0.3162026-09-02: 0.3162026-09-03: 0.316 2026-08-23 2026-09-03 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Scherzer, Max · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scherzer, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 47.1%Slider: 18.4%Changeup: 16.0%Curveball: 13.5%Cutter: 4.9% FF47% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 47%SL 18%CH 16%CU 14%FC 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scherzer, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.2 mphFF93 mphSlider: 18% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.7 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.1 mphCH84 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 75.0 mphCU75 mphCutter: 5% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 88.2 mphFC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.7% 396 104 qualified
SL 21.2% 180 101 limited sample
CH 15.2% 129 104 limited sample
CB 14.3% 121 102 limited sample
FC 2.6% 22 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.316 vs 0.290 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Slider 23%, Changeup 14%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.83
K% Δ-0.037
Sample61.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings139.8----
Batters Faced588----
K%22.0%16.7% to 28.1%+/- 5.7%
BB%7.1%5.2% to 9.4%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%21.1%17.8% to 26.4%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.630.98 to 2.69+/- 0.85
xwOBA Against0.3270.274 to 0.353+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.9%5.6% to 13.5%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.333.43 to 6.43+/- 1.50
FIP4.553.37 to 5.08+/- 0.85
WHIP1.2791.072 to 1.602+/- 0.265
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3792 career BF

xwOBA0.316
K%18.6%
BB%7.9%
Barrel11.2%
vs RHH

3640 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%22.7%
BB%5.4%
Barrel9.6%