Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Scherzer, Max

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.0% K%
Range
16.7% to 28.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Volatile contact Age 42 Status Out / inactive
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.57
ERA current pace9.64
ERA rolling p506.09
Observed weight30%
ERA
4.95 5.49 6.09 6.69 7.24
FIP
4.71 5.02 5.36 5.70 6.01
K%
15.4% 17.4% 19.5% 21.7% 23.7%
BB%
5.9% 6.8% 7.8% 8.8% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.7%
35 -37 vs proj
Barrel allowed13.9%
3 -32 vs proj
Fastball velo93.0
28
Hard-hit allowed36.7%
66
K%12.6%
2 -46 vs proj
Whiff%13.6%
1 -32 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.396
2 -38 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+100
34
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Scherzer, Max · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3972026-05-19: 0.3972026-05-21: 0.3972026-05-23: 0.3972026-05-24: 0.3972026-05-25: 0.3972026-05-26: 0.3972026-05-28: 0.3972026-05-29: 0.3962026-05-30: 0.3962026-05-31: 0.3962026-06-01: 0.396 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Scherzer, Max · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 14%14%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scherzer, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.6%Slider: 21.9%Changeup: 15.4%Curveball: 13.0%Cutter: 1.2% MIX FF 49%SL 22%CH 15%CU 13%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scherzer, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.1, IVB 1.3FFSL: HB -0.0, IVB 2.6SLCH: HB -0.5, IVB 2.8CHCU: HB 0.5, IVB 4.5CUFC: HB -0.1, IVB 2.1FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.2% 162 104 limited sample
SL 22.4% 77 96 limited sample
CH 14.9% 51 103 limited sample
CB 14.0% 48 100 limited sample
FC 1.5% 5 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.316 vs 0.290 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Slider 23%, Changeup 14%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+5.31
K% Δ-0.094
Sample23.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings137.6----
Batters Faced579----
K%22.0%16.7% to 28.1%+/- 5.7%
BB%7.1%5.2% to 9.4%+/- 2.1%
Whiff%21.1%17.8% to 26.4%+/- 4.3%
HR/91.630.98 to 2.69+/- 0.85
xwOBA Against0.3270.274 to 0.353+/- 0.040
Barrel% Allowed8.9%5.6% to 13.5%+/- 4.0%
ERA4.333.43 to 6.43+/- 1.50
FIP4.553.37 to 5.08+/- 0.85
WHIP1.2791.072 to 1.603+/- 0.265
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

3792 career BF

xwOBA0.316
K%18.6%
BB%7.9%
Barrel11.2%
vs RHH

3640 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%22.7%
BB%5.4%
Barrel9.6%