Mithrandir Metrics
Player Colorado Rockies Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Colorado Rockies

Michael Lorenzen

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 210 lb · Age 34

Cards
19
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Colorado Rockies Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024763.3126240130.1971.24
20257114.6427260141.21271.33
2026396.222120097.0731.77
12 Seasons57644.27416139151093.08991.35
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
18
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
20
Arsenal7 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.41
ERA current pace6.22
ERA rolling p505.62
Observed weight67%
ERA
4.51 5.03 5.62 6.21 6.74
FIP
4.32 4.56 4.83 5.09 5.33
K%
14.9% 15.8% 16.9% 18.0% 18.9%
BB%
7.1% 7.7% 8.4% 9.1% 9.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.76
4
ERA6.22
9
BB%8.5%
54
K%15.7%
10
xwOBA allowed0.359
10
Barrel allowed8.9%
32
Fastball velo93.7
38
Hard-hit allowed46.7%
7
Whiff%18.4%
13
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+95
12
Fastball Stuff+99
29
Mithrandir Stuff+101
43
Curveball Stuff+102
44
Cutter Stuff+108
98
Sinker Stuff+105
70
Slider Stuff+104
63
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lorenzen, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.359 2026-07-07: 0.3602026-07-08: 0.3602026-07-09: 0.3562026-07-10: 0.3562026-07-11: 0.3562026-07-12: 0.3562026-07-13: 0.3562026-07-14: 0.3582026-07-15: 0.3582026-07-16: 0.3592026-07-17: 0.3592026-07-18: 0.359 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 19%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lorenzen, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lorenzen, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 19.5%4-Seam Fastball: 19.2%Sinker: 18.5%Cutter: 14.6%Curveball: 12.1%Slider: 8.4% CH19% · 85 mphprimary pitch CH 19%FF 19%SI 18%FC 15%CU 12%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lorenzen, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Changeup: 19% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 84.7 mphCH85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphSinker: 18% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mphCutter: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 90.2 mphFC90 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 82.8 mphCU83 mphSlider: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.2 mphSL86 mphSweeper: 8% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.6 mphST83 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 66″ drop, 68.4 mphUN68 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 20.4% 218 95 qualified
FB 20.0% 214 99 qualified
SL 16.9% 181 104 limited sample
SI 16.2% 173 105 limited sample
CB 14.0% 150 102 limited sample
FC 12.6% 135 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age34
Height6' 1"
Weight210 lb
Debut2015-04-29
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.33
K% Δ-0.021

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.2σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.418
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.359

Lorenzen’s wOBA-against sits at 0.418, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.359 — a gap of 0.059, 2.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 102 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching192026-07-12Run prevention outpaced the underlying contact signals
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202617.8% K | 4.89 ERAProjection
2026-04-14 @ HOU2 ER / 3 K2.2 IP
2026-04-11 @ SD0 ER / 0 K1.0 IP
2026-04-08 vs HOU1 ER / 4 K5.2 IP
2026-04-03 vs PHI9 ER / 2 K3.0 IP