Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Lorenzen, Michael

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.8% K%
Range
15.5% to 24.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Volatile contact Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-18
13
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
16
Arsenal7 metrics
52
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-18
ERA preseason4.12
ERA current pace7.02
ERA rolling p506.23
Observed weight73%
ERA
5.14 5.66 6.23 6.80 7.32
FIP
4.75 5.00 5.28 5.56 5.81
K%
14.1% 14.9% 15.8% 16.8% 17.6%
BB%
7.5% 8.1% 8.7% 9.4% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.88
2
ERA7.02
3
BB%8.9%
50 -15 vs proj
K%14.5%
5
xwOBA allowed0.372
5 -21 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.3%
23
Fastball velo93.7
37
Hard-hit allowed46.5%
6
Whiff%17.2%
9 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-18
Changeup Stuff+95
13
Fastball Stuff+102
49
Mithrandir Stuff+102
45
Sinker Stuff+102
51
Slider Stuff+103
62
Curveball Stuff+102
46
Cutter Stuff+108
96
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 20%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lorenzen, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.372 2026-09-04: 0.3712026-09-05: 0.3702026-09-06: 0.3702026-09-07: 0.3702026-09-08: 0.3702026-09-09: 0.3702026-09-10: 0.3712026-09-11: 0.3712026-09-12: 0.3712026-09-13: 0.3712026-09-14: 0.3712026-09-18: 0.372 2026-09-04 2026-09-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lorenzen, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lorenzen, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 20.4%Changeup: 20.1%4-Seam Fastball: 18.6%Cutter: 14.3%Curveball: 10.7%Sweeper: 8.2% SI20% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 20%CH 20%FF 19%FC 14%CU 11%ST 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lorenzen, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Sinker: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 84.6 mphCH85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphCutter: 14% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.1 mphFC90 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 82.7 mphCU83 mphSweeper: 8% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.7 mphST83 mphSlider: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 66″ drop, 68.4 mphUN68 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 20.0% 263 102 qualified
CH 20.0% 263 95 qualified
SL 17.1% 225 103 qualified
SI 16.6% 218 102 qualified
FC 13.6% 178 108 limited sample
CB 12.6% 165 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Sinker 18%, Changeup 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+2.45
K% Δ-0.033
Sample131.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings74.9----
Batters Faced318----
K%17.8%15.5% to 24.2%+/- 4.4%
BB%7.8%5.7% to 10.3%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%20.0%17.9% to 24.5%+/- 3.3%
HR/91.601.01 to 2.20+/- 0.59
xwOBA Against0.3360.288 to 0.360+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.7% to 11.7%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.573.17 to 5.97+/- 1.40
FIP4.613.60 to 4.97+/- 0.68
WHIP1.3051.097 to 1.529+/- 0.216
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2106 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%17.4%
BB%8.3%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

2262 career BF

xwOBA0.312
K%17.7%
BB%6.6%
Barrel8.9%