Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / COL · 2026

Lorenzen, Michael

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.8% K%
Range
15.5% to 24.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team COL Archetype Volatile contact Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
18
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
20
Arsenal7 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.41
ERA current pace6.22
ERA rolling p505.62
Observed weight67%
ERA
4.51 5.03 5.62 6.21 6.74
FIP
4.32 4.56 4.83 5.09 5.33
K%
14.9% 15.8% 16.9% 18.0% 18.9%
BB%
7.1% 7.7% 8.4% 9.1% 9.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.76
4
ERA6.22
9
BB%8.5%
54
K%15.7%
10
xwOBA allowed0.359
10
Barrel allowed8.9%
32
Fastball velo93.7
38
Hard-hit allowed46.7%
7
Whiff%18.4%
13
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Changeup Stuff+95
12
Fastball Stuff+99
29
Mithrandir Stuff+101
43
Curveball Stuff+102
44
Cutter Stuff+108
98
Sinker Stuff+105
70
Slider Stuff+104
63
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 19%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lorenzen, Michael · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.359 2026-07-07: 0.3602026-07-08: 0.3602026-07-09: 0.3562026-07-10: 0.3562026-07-11: 0.3562026-07-12: 0.3562026-07-13: 0.3562026-07-14: 0.3582026-07-15: 0.3582026-07-16: 0.3592026-07-17: 0.3592026-07-18: 0.359 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lorenzen, Michael · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 47%47% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lorenzen, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot Changeup: 19.5%4-Seam Fastball: 19.2%Sinker: 18.5%Cutter: 14.6%Curveball: 12.1%Slider: 8.4% CH19% · 85 mphprimary pitch CH 19%FF 19%SI 18%FC 15%CU 12%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lorenzen, Michael · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Changeup: 19% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 84.7 mphCH85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 19% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.0 mphFF94 mphSinker: 18% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.4 mphSI93 mphCutter: 15% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 90.2 mphFC90 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 82.8 mphCU83 mphSlider: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 86.2 mphSL86 mphSweeper: 8% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.6 mphST83 mphUnknown: 0% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 66″ drop, 68.4 mphUN68 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CH 20.4% 218 95 qualified
FB 20.0% 214 99 qualified
SL 16.9% 181 104 limited sample
SI 16.2% 173 105 limited sample
CB 14.0% 150 102 limited sample
FC 12.6% 135 108 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Sinker 18%, Changeup 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.33
K% Δ-0.021
Sample101.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings75.5----
Batters Faced321----
K%17.8%15.5% to 24.2%+/- 4.4%
BB%7.8%5.7% to 10.3%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%20.0%17.9% to 24.5%+/- 3.3%
HR/91.621.03 to 2.23+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3600.308 to 0.385+/- 0.038
Barrel% Allowed8.7%6.7% to 11.7%+/- 2.5%
ERA4.893.40 to 6.39+/- 1.50
FIP4.613.60 to 4.97+/- 0.68
WHIP1.3971.175 to 1.638+/- 0.231
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

2106 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%17.4%
BB%8.3%
Barrel8.1%
vs RHH

2262 career BF

xwOBA0.312
K%17.7%
BB%6.6%
Barrel8.9%