Mithrandir Metrics
Player Toronto Blue Jays Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Toronto Blue Jays

Patrick Corbin

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 4", 225 lb · Age 36

Cards
10
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Toronto Blue Jays Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20246135.6232320174.21391.50
20257114.4031300155.11311.36
2026345.211815177.2601.49
14 Seasons1131464.5339136932125.119201.38
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
29
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
27
Arsenal6 metrics
37
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.71
ERA current pace5.07
ERA rolling p504.92
Observed weight59%
ERA
3.51 4.18 4.92 5.66 6.33
FIP
3.91 4.22 4.56 4.90 5.21
K%
14.6% 15.9% 17.3% 18.8% 20.0%
BB%
5.8% 6.5% 7.3% 8.0% 8.7%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.53
15
ERA5.07
24
BB%7.0%
76
K%17.3%
15
xwOBA allowed0.354
13
Barrel allowed7.7%
50
Fastball velo91.4
9
Hard-hit allowed42.7%
26
Whiff%18.2%
12 -32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Mithrandir Stuff+100
35
Sinker Stuff+101
36
Slider Stuff+96
14
Changeup Stuff+100
38
Cutter Stuff+103
65
Fastball Stuff+100
34
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Corbin, Patrick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.354 2026-07-07: 0.3602026-07-08: 0.3602026-07-09: 0.3542026-07-10: 0.3542026-07-11: 0.3542026-07-12: 0.3542026-07-13: 0.3542026-07-14: 0.3542026-07-15: 0.3542026-07-16: 0.3542026-07-17: 0.3542026-07-18: 0.354 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Corbin, Patrick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Corbin, Patrick · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 27.6%Slider: 26.9%Changeup: 18.0%Cutter: 15.1%4-Seam Fastball: 11.2%Curveball: 1.2% SI28% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 28%SL 27%CH 18%FC 15%FF 11%CU 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Corbin, Patrick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 21″42″63″84″ Sinker: 28% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 91.4 mphSI91 mphSlider: 27% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 79.0 mphSL79 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 78.3 mphCH78 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.2 mphFC86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 11% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.3 mphFF91 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 62″ drop, 68.0 mphCU68 mphSlow Curve: 0% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 83″ drop, 57.7 mphCS58 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 28.4% 275 101 qualified
SL 26.0% 252 96 qualified
CH 17.7% 172 100 limited sample
FC 17.2% 167 103 limited sample
FB 10.1% 98 100 limited sample
CB 0.6% 6 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age36
Height6' 4"
Weight225 lb
Debut2012-04-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.05
K% Δ+0.006

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.365
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.354

Corbin’s wOBA-against sits at 0.365, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.354 — a gap of 0.010, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 74 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching102026-06-26Slider played up through SL/FC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202616.7% K | 5.02 ERAProjection