Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Corbin, Patrick

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
16.7% K%
Range
12.7% to 23.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Balanced starter Age 37 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
29
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
27
Arsenal6 metrics
37
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.71
ERA current pace5.07
ERA rolling p504.92
Observed weight59%
ERA
3.51 4.18 4.92 5.66 6.33
FIP
3.91 4.22 4.56 4.90 5.21
K%
14.6% 15.9% 17.3% 18.8% 20.0%
BB%
5.8% 6.5% 7.3% 8.0% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.53
15
ERA5.07
24
BB%7.0%
76
K%17.3%
15
xwOBA allowed0.354
13
Barrel allowed7.7%
50
Fastball velo91.4
9
Hard-hit allowed42.7%
26
Whiff%18.2%
12 -32 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-18
Mithrandir Stuff+100
35
Sinker Stuff+101
36
Slider Stuff+96
14
Changeup Stuff+100
38
Cutter Stuff+103
65
Fastball Stuff+100
34
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Corbin, Patrick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.354 2026-07-07: 0.3602026-07-08: 0.3602026-07-09: 0.3542026-07-10: 0.3542026-07-11: 0.3542026-07-12: 0.3542026-07-13: 0.3542026-07-14: 0.3542026-07-15: 0.3542026-07-16: 0.3542026-07-17: 0.3542026-07-18: 0.354 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Corbin, Patrick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 42%42%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Corbin, Patrick · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 27.6%Slider: 26.9%Changeup: 18.0%Cutter: 15.1%4-Seam Fastball: 11.2%Curveball: 1.2% SI28% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 28%SL 27%CH 18%FC 15%FF 11%CU 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Corbin, Patrick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 21″42″63″84″ Sinker: 28% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 91.4 mphSI91 mphSlider: 27% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 79.0 mphSL79 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 78.3 mphCH78 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 86.2 mphFC86 mph4-Seam Fastball: 11% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.3 mphFF91 mphCurveball: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 62″ drop, 68.0 mphCU68 mphSlow Curve: 0% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 83″ drop, 57.7 mphCS58 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 28.4% 275 101 qualified
SL 26.0% 252 96 qualified
CH 17.7% 172 100 limited sample
FC 17.2% 167 103 limited sample
FB 10.1% 98 100 limited sample
CB 0.6% 6 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.311 vs 0.339 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 34%, Sinker 29%, Cutter 25%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.05
K% Δ+0.006
Sample74.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings77.4----
Batters Faced343----
K%16.7%12.7% to 23.7%+/- 5.5%
BB%7.7%5.4% to 10.2%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%22.4%18.8% to 27.6%+/- 4.4%
HR/91.470.83 to 2.19+/- 0.68
xwOBA Against0.3500.304 to 0.394+/- 0.045
Barrel% Allowed8.5%6.8% to 12.0%+/- 2.6%
ERA5.022.74 to 6.62+/- 1.94
FIP4.593.69 to 5.51+/- 0.91
WHIP1.4571.130 to 1.714+/- 0.292
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1641 career BF

xwOBA0.311
K%18.6%
BB%8.5%
Barrel7.4%
vs RHH

6142 career BF

xwOBA0.339
K%16.1%
BB%7.0%
Barrel9.2%